Species distribution modelling supports the study of past, present and future biogeographies

Species distribution modelling (SDM), also called environmental or ecological niche modelling, has developed over the last 30 years as a widely used tool in core areas of biogeography including historical biogeography, studies diversity patterns, species ranges, ecoregional classification, conservation assessment and projecting future global change impacts. In 50th anniversary year Journal Biogeography, I reflect on developments illustrate how embedded methodology become all speculate directions field. Challenges to raised this journal 2006 have been addressed significant degree. Those challenges are clarification concept; improved sample design for occurrence data; model parameterization; predictor selection; assessing performance transferability; integrating correlative process models distributions. SDM is used, often conjunction with other evidence, understand past range dynamics, identify patterns drivers biological diversity, limits, define delineate ecoregions, estimate distributions biodiversity elements relation protected status prioritize action, forecast shifts response climate scenarios. Areas progress that may more accessible useful tools include genetically informed community models.